![]() ![]() So, we know over- and underperforming in the turnover category is predictive of future performance, but are turnovers themselves predictable?Īs an extension of Harvard Sports Analysis Collective's findings, they modeled the likelihood of a turnover being attributed to talent as opposed to luck borrowing some methodology from Tom Tango, a sabermetrician. And again, the effect was compounding: when it was 10+ they covered 54.4 percent of the time and when it was 15+ they covered 55.8 percent of the time. Beuoy, it was found that teams with strong season-to-date records with large turnover margins are likely to regress to the mean (and the inverse being true about weak teams with weak turnover margins).įor example, teams that had a 5+ turnover margin relative to their opponents (for example, the Saints with a +3 turnover margin playing the Falcons with a -2 margin) covered 52.0 percent of the time. The teams to keep an eye on this year are the Eagles, Raiders, 49ers, and Broncos.īut the effect isn’t just at season-end, it can also be a signal of regression in-season as well. Only three of the 22 teams to post a -10 or lower turnover margin during this stretch did it again the following year. Those teams went from averaging 4.4 wins to 7.1 in the following season, a 2.7 (!!!) increase in wins. Only one of the 22 teams to post a +10 or higher turnover margin during this stretch did it again the following year.Īs you can see below, the 2020 turnover overperformers to watch for are the Titans and Colts.Ĭonversely, since 2016, teams that had a double-digit negative turnover margin saw an average increase of 15.8 (!!!) turnovers in their margin in the following year. Those same teams went from averaging 11.2 wins in their turnover-friendly seasons to averaging 9.9 wins in the following season, a 1.3 decrease in wins. Zooming a little farther out, teams since 2016 that had a double-digit positive turnover margin saw an average decrease of 10.5 in their margin in the following year. Conversely, none of the bottom ten teams in turnover margin had a winning record. For the less statistically-inclined, that means that while ignoring all other factors that impact winning and losing (point margin, opponents faced, etc.), turnover margin explained 41.9 percent of the variation in regular-season wins.Īpplying this concept to the 2020 season, the top-12 teams that led in turnover margin had winning records, and none had less than 10 wins. Each additional positive turnover towards a team's margin is worth about 0.2 wins with an R-squared value of 0.419. ![]() In addition to that, the study found the effect to be rather significant on a seasonal basis. The effect is compounding as well, as teams that won the turnover margin by two or more won 83.9 percent of the time, and 90.7 percent of the time when winning the margin by three or more. To demonstrate the relative strength of turnover influence, home teams won “just” 57.2 percent of all games in the same sample. In a study conducted by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, it was found that a team that wins the turnover margin in a game wins 69.6 percent of the time. Turnovers are predictive of future performance The importance of turnovers.Since 2016, teams that had a double-digit positive turnover margin saw an average decrease of 10.5 in their margin in the following year.Teams that win the turnover margin wins the game almost 70% of the time.In a game that was decided by six points, a call that took six points off the board - along with a potential extra-point - hung over the rest of the game. It appeared that Wilson did not actually possess the football until he was in the end zone while the momentum from his dive carried him past the goal line, but the officials deemed otherwise and the costly fumble ensued. Ultimately, it shouldn't have mattered - the Wolverines should have been able to gain a single yard from there to hit pay dirt - but it wound up as an important and questionable call when a botched handoff between McCarthy and Kalel Mullings resulted in a touchback and turnover on the next play. After review, however, the officials deemed that Wilson was down on the 1-yard line. His 50-yard diving grab from quarterback J.J. While the Horned Frogs were penalized two more times for 70 more yards than the Wolverines in a game that featured plenty of questionable calls on both sides, a pair of plays that went under video review stood out.įirst came a potentially game-changing catch from Michigan receiver Roman Wilson early in the second quarter. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl sparked controversy, especially among Wolverines fans frustrated by how the controversial calls impacted their teams chances in the wild College Football Playoff semifinal game. A pair of officiating decisions during No. ![]()
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